Alphabet enters 2026 with strong top-line metrics (>$400B revenue, 48% cloud growth) and broad analyst support, but is simultaneously executing its most capital-intensive year on record while facing two underappreciated structural risks: antitrust enforcement that could constrain or restructure its search business, and Apple's AI search initiative that threatens the default distribution model underpinning Google Search's margin. The AI narrative is credible but premature in assuming monetization will justify $175B–$185B in infrastructure spend within a visible time frame. The stock's near-term performance appears driven more by sentiment and analyst reaffirmations than by new operational evidence. Long-term investors should weigh cloud growth momentum against the realistic possibility that regulatory and competitive dynamics compress the advertising business before AI revenues scale sufficiently to compensate.